基于集对分析和风险矩阵的水资源承载力评价方法

doi:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2018.07.008

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为综合评价区域水资源承载状况，提出了集对分析与风险矩阵相结合的区域水资源承载力评价方法。首先，根据研究区域水资源-经济社会-生态环境复合系统的实际情况，建立由水资源承载支撑力、承载调控力、承载压力3个子系统和15个指标的区域水资源承载力评价指标体系，确定1级（可载）、2级（临界超载）、3级（超载）评价标准；其次，采用基于遗传算法的改进层次分析法确定各评价指标的权重；最后，建立了基于集对分析和风险矩阵的水资源承载力评价模型（WCC-SPARM），并用其评价2010~2015年安徽省淮北市水资源承载力。结果表明：2010~2015年淮北市水资源承载力级别分别是2级、3级、3级、2级、3级和3级，这与基于集对分析方法的评价结果（2级、3级、2级、2级、3级和3级）总体上相一致，说明WCC-SPARM模型在区域资源、环境承载力综合评价中具有较大的推广应用价值。

关键词: 水资源承载力评价, 集对分析, 风险矩阵, 承载支撑力, 承载压力, 承载调控力

Abstract: In order to evaluate the regional water resources carrying capacity comprehensively, a method based on set pair analysis and risk matrix is put forward. Firstly, according to the actual situation of the compound system of regional water resources, economy, society and ecological environment, we set up the evaluation index system comprising 3 subsystems and 15 indicators. The 3 subsystems are carrying-support capacity, carrying-regulation capacity and carrying-load capacity, and the evaluation criteria including level 1(carry-able), level 2(critical overload) and level 3 (overload) is determined. Secondly, the weight of each evaluating indicator is determined by the improved analytic hierarchy process that is based on the genetic algorithm. Finally, the evaluating model of the water resources carrying capacity based on the set pair analysis and risk matrix (referred to as WCC-SPARM for short) is established and used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Huaibei City, Anhui Province. The result shows that the water resources carrying capacity levels of the Huaibei from 2010 to 2015 are 2,3,3,2,3 and 3, which are consistent with the evaluation results of the pair analysis method. The WCC-SPARM model plays an important role in the comprehensive evaluation of regional resources and environment carrying capacity.

Key words: evaluation of water resources carrying capacity, set pair analysis, risk matrix, carrying-support capacity, carrying-load capacity, carrying-regulation capacity

金菊良，陈磊，陈梦璐，郦建强，张礼兵，董涛. 基于集对分析和风险矩阵的水资源承载力评价方法[J]. 人民长江, doi: 10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2018.07.008.

JIN Juliang, CHEN Lei, CHEN Menglu, LI Jianqiang, ZHANG Libing, DONG Tao. Evaluation method of water resources carrying capacity based on set pair analysis and risk matrix[J]. , doi: 10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2018.07.008.

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基于集对分析和风险矩阵的水资源承载力评价方法

Evaluation method of water resources carrying capacity based on set pair analysis and risk matrix

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